Not a bad idea to have some metals. Portfolio diversification.
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That’s kinda what he said, although there really aren’t that many of them.
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You “found” this? From a desperate seller or did you find it in a drawer and you are the one that needs to go gambling? 
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Has some personal history for you. Can’t put a price on that. I bet he paid about $3 a piece for them. That’s what my mom paid to get my sister and I a few. That’s going way back now.
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They do. I really don’t know when he got them, probably when I was a kid in the late ‘60s early ‘70s. He left some to all three of us kids.
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He advertised it online locally. By chance I was the first to respond. When I got there he told me he wanted money for gaming. I gave him his asking price. Had a nice clean home so it didn’t look like desperation.
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Current Bank Short Positions in Silver
Banks, particularly major bullion banks like JPMorgan, HSBC, and Scotiabank, hold significant net short positions in silver futures on the COMEX (a division of the CME Group). These positions are primarily “paper silver”—futures contracts not necessarily backed by physical metal. Based on the most recent available data from mid-2025:
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Net Short Exposure: Bullion banks (classified as “Swap Dealers” in CFTC reports) are net short approximately 85,000 contracts. Each COMEX silver contract represents 5,000 troy ounces, equating to a total exposure of 425 million ounces of silver.
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This represents about 50-60% of the total commercial net short positions in the market.
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For context, global annual silver mine production is around 800-850 million ounces, so this short stack is roughly half a year’s supply.
These figures come from the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports and Bank Participation Reports (BPR), which show commercials (including banks) adding shorts as prices rose from ~$22/oz in early 2024 to ~$42-44/oz by late September 2025. Earlier in 2024, shorts were lower (e.g., ~217 million ounces in mid-2024), but they’ve grown amid the rally.
Implications If Silver Breaks $50/oz
Breaking $50/oz—a 45-year resistance level last tested in 1980—would represent a 13-20% surge from current levels ($42-44/oz as of early October 2025). This could trigger a short squeeze, where banks face mounting losses and pressure to cover (buy back) positions to limit damage. Here’s the breakdown:
1. Financial Losses for Banks
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Mark-to-Market Losses: Shorts are currently underwater due to the 2025 rally. At $44/oz (current price), assuming an average entry around $25-30/oz (typical from 2024 lows), unrealized losses are ~$14-19/oz per contract.
- Total: $6-8 billion across the 425 million ounces (net of any longs).
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At $50/oz: Losses would rise to ~$20-25/oz from entry.
- Total: $8.5-10.6 billion.
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Extreme Scenario ($75-100/oz): If momentum builds (e.g., due to industrial demand from solar/EVs or inflation fears), losses could exceed $20-30 billion, potentially straining bank balance sheets. Historical precedents (e.g., 2011 spike to $50) saw similar squeezes, forcing rapid covering.
Price Level
Est. Loss per Ounce (from $25-30 entry)
Total Bank Losses (425M oz)
Current ($44/oz)
$14-19
$6-8 billion
Break $50/oz
$20-25
$8.5-10.6 billion
$75/oz
$45-50
$19-21 billion
$100/oz
$70-75
$30-32 billion
Note: These are rough estimates; actual losses depend on exact entry prices and hedging. Banks like JPMorgan have faced fines for manipulation in the past (e.g., $920M in 2020), highlighting vulnerability.
2. Physical Market Strain (The “Shortfall”)
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Deliverable Supply vs. Open Interest: COMEX open interest (total contracts) is ~150,000-170,000, or 750-850 million ounces—already 1.5-2x global annual production.
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Registered (deliverable) silver stocks: ~50-60 million ounces (multi-year lows as of September 2025).
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Eligible stocks (total vaulted): ~300 million ounces, but ~50% is “non-deliverable” (held by long-term investors/ETFs).
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Effective Deliverable Supply: ~150-180 million ounces—less than half the open interest.
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If longs demand delivery during a squeeze (rare, but up in 2025 with 12,249 contracts delivered in September), banks could face a physical shortfall of 300-500 million ounces to cover shorts without crashing the paper market.
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This mismatch (open interest at 226% of total vaulted silver, 1,800% of registered) could force banks to source metal from London (LBMA) or mines, driving prices higher in a feedback loop.
3. Broader Market Impact
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Short Squeeze Dynamics: Five U.S. banks hold ~70% of shorts (e.g., 707 million ounces total commercial shorts in late 2024 data). A $50 break could spark panic covering, amplifying the rally 2-3x (e.g., to $60-75/oz short-term).
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Why Now? 2025 deficits (~265 million ounces) from industrial demand (50%+ of total) + investment flows have depleted stocks. Backwardation (spot > futures) signals tightness.
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Risks to Banks: Systemic if unhedged; could echo 1980 Hunt Brothers squeeze (silver hit $50, then crashed). Regulators (CFTC) monitor, but no direct intervention expected unless manipulation alleged.
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Bullish Catalysts: Gold-silver ratio dropping to 60:1 (from 80:1), Fed rate cuts, or EV/solar boom could push it over $50 by Q4 2025 or Q1 2026.
In summary, banks are “short” ~425 million ounces today, facing $8.5-10.6 billion in losses at $50/oz—plus a potential 300+ million ounce physical shortfall if deliveries spike. This could “crush” shorts but boost prices for physical buyers. Monitor CFTC COT reports (weekly) and CME warehouse data for updates.
Interesting answer by Grok on the banks short position in silver.
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Any chance you could copy it? No X account here.
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Done. Recheck post. I’m a cut and paste kind of gal.
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I checked as well. Surprising amount of short interest. $200 silver anyone?
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that’s when i’ll start dumping all the bits and bobs i never wear!!
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Wow, I’m so glad I saved all my broken silver jewelry!
I’ll probably just start commissioning artists to create me something, and send them the silver to melt down.
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Honestly, I think you’re precisely on the right track to buy directly from the craftsperson wherever possible. Retail markups are often 200% to 300% or more on most Native made jewelry, and being willing to pay even a modest percentage of that markup over what a dealer would pay them will go a long way toward keeping that artist working in the craft. The jewelry you provide them at melt value probably wont be melted down. If they’re savvy (and most are) they’ll resell it for cash at a higher price than melt value, and use the additional profit for living expenses and raw materials.
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I love to buy from the artists at the Eiteljorg art market. But when we’re out west I really enjoy shopping at good trading posts/shops, especially those with history (for me part of buying Native American jewelry is also the experience and memories). I read online some comments from Natives that they appreciate Garland’s, because they are treated fairly by the store. I’ve noticed that Twin Rocks up in Bluff not only has great relationships with its artists, but also treats them right. I love these responses that the owners gave to negative online reviews regarding their prices.
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I can’t comment on the shop but I do like them giving as they receive in the reviews. Too many people are wimps anymore. Good to see some backbone.
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Me too! It kills me that since they have “Trading Post” in the name, some people thought they should just have little souvenir stuff. They are within a few miles of the northeastern part of the Navajo rez, and their family has been involved for literally decades with Native American artists, and have even helped them expand in their particular field, especially basket making. Their stuff isn’t cheap, but the prices are certainly fair compared to other shops. I’ve compared Derek Gordon cuffs in other stores since I bought mine, and I think I got a good price.
I seriously finagled my vacation last spring to make sure I got there, although I did save up ahead on purpose for it. Bluff, UT is a beautiful area, although a bit out of the way from anything.
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Very creative and from an accomplished jeweler, but not very functional in the long run. Especially for the price. Maybe he should have had removable inserts for aging knuckles as a buyer would want to get a lot of mileage for that price.
Out here we joke that crazy prices go towards a house on the ocean. What is it out west, new truck, horse, or ranch?
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I didn’t save up enough for that one 
Or the Loloma cuff with Bisbee turquoise
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